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Gold Jumpy Ahead of Brexit Outcome, US Jobless Claims Dip

Gold has moved in both directions on Thursday, but has shown little net movement during the day. The metal is trading slightly above the level of $ 1260 the North American session. In the liberation front, the US numbers were a mixture. claims for US unemployment fell to 259,000 below expectations. However, sales of new homes fell 551,000 well below expectations. The highlight of today is the Brexit referendum in the UK.

Does the Staying field pull out a victory in the referendum Brexit? After a bitter and hard-fought campaign, millions of Britons are voting on whether the country remains in the EU or block outputs. Most polls show a race head to neck between fields remain and leave, so undecided voters are likely to swing the vote and determine the final result. However, there is a clear discrepancy between polls and the mood of the market, as market sentiment continues to lean towards a victory for the camp remain. This feeling has boosted the pound, which briefly broke above 1.49 on Thursday and is trading at its highest level in 2016. The Remain field has warned that a vote to leave the EU could damage the economy UK, while the "Leave" vote has tapped into voter dissatisfaction with Brussels, particularly in relation to immigration and over-regulation by the EU. The economic stakes are huge, as the UK economy 2.9 billion pounds, is the largest in the world fifth and number two in Europe, after Germany. A vote to leave the comfort zone of the EU would be a journey into the unknown, with unpredictable economic and political consequences for the UK and the European Union. If the field Stay reign victorious, gold prices could fall as the market's appetite for risk will increase, which could be detrimental to gold as a safe haven.

Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen sounded cautious in his testimony on the US economy when he appeared before Congress this week. As expected, Yellen did not provide any clues about future rate hikes. She acknowledged that the US economy could face adversity, saying that "[c] onsiderable uncertainty about the economic outlook remains". Yellen said she is "hopeful that we will see a rebound in growth", but skeptics might respond that the markets want to see the Fed action and not just wait. The Fed was clearly out of sync with the markets, as highlighted by the statements by the Fed in December that could raise rates four times in 2016. Meanwhile, we are here in June, and there are clear indications that the Fed will raise rates throughout the year. In his testimony, Yellen said he does not expect the US economy to enter a recession, but if there was such a scenario, the US not follow Europe and Japan and adopt negative interest rates. On a more positive note, Yellen said weak oil prices, low interest rates and stronger wage growth should support consumer spending.

/ USD XAU Basics
Thursday (June 23)

8:30 jobless claims US. 271K estimate. 259K Real
US Flash Manufacturing PMI 9:45. 50.5 estimate. 51.4 reais
10:00 US Sales new home. 561K estimate. 551K Real
10:00 US Leading Index CB. 0.2% estimate. Real -0.2%
10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. 59B estimate. Real 62B
Upcoming key events
Friday (June 24)

8:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.1%
* Key Announcements are highlighted in bold
* All times are EDT release

XAU / USD for Thursday June 23, 2016

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Gold Inches Higher as US Jobless Claims Rise as Expected

Gold prices has posted small gains on Thursday, erasing the losses seen in the Tuesday session. Gold is trading at a spot price of $1319 per ounce in the North American session. On the release front, Unemployment Claims climbed to 267 thousand, within expectations. As well, Chicago PMI jumped to 56.8 points, well above expectations. On Friday, the US manufacturing sector will be in focus, with the US release of ISM Manufacturing PMI.

With all the excitement over Brexit, the Federal Reserve has been on the back-burner. That could change next week, as we’ll hear from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Monday, who will speak in Philadelphia. Will she provide some clues about a rate move? Yellen and her colleagues have sounded cautious about the US economy, and unless we see stronger employment and inflation numbers in the second half of 2016, the Fed may stand pat until 2017. Gone are the heady days of last December, when the Fed hiked rates and hinted that there was more to come in 2016, perhaps as many as four hikes. Bottom line? Traders shouldn’t count on a rate hike to boost the US dollar; rather the direction of the currency will largely be data-dependent – stronger US numbers should translate into gains for the greenback against its rivals.

One of the big winners of the Brexit referendum has been gold, as financial markets dropped sharply after the stunning news that Britain had voted to exit the European Union.  Gold took full advantage of the chaos, surging a remarkable 7.1 percent immediately after the Brexit vote. The metal has given up a bit of ground this week, as market sentiment has improved as the dust begins to settle from the shock of Brexit. Gold has enjoyed a stellar month of June, gaining some 8.8% in value and trading comfortably above the $1300 level.

Brexit has ushered in a period of instability and uncertainty across the continent, with Brexit seemingly the only certainty one can point to. The vote to leave the EU is causing deep instability in Europe and the UK and wiped out a staggering $3 trillion from global stock markets. As the dust has begun to settle, the financial markets have stabilized. The pound plunged as much as 11 percent in the aftermath of the vote but has stabilized over the past few days. Still, political leaders on both sides of the Channel will have to pick up the pieces and deal with the radical new landscape, which was unthinkable just a few months ago – that of a European Union without Britain. The Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and Bank of England Governor Mark Charney have sought to reassure the markets and the public that the situation is under control, but is it? The political picture is fluid, as the Conservatives are looking for a new leader, the Labor Party is in turmoil and general elections are likely later in the year. On the financial front, the pound and the markets have taken a beating and London’s position as a world financial center has been shaken. The uncertainty is not going to disappear anytime soon, so traders can expect further volatility in the currency and commodity markets.

British Prime Minister Cameron, a staunch supporter of the EU, finds himself in the unenviable position of explaining the Brexit decision to fuming Europeans. Cameron arrived in Brussels for an EU Summit on Tuesday and the meeting was fraught with tension, dismay and anger. Clearly, the “divorce of the “century” between Britain and the EU could be rancorous and messy. Cameron has asked for time to prepare Britain’s exit and wants to renew “productive” relations with Europe. However, the Europeans are in no mood for hugs and kisses on both cheeks. German Chancellor Merkel said that the UK could not “cherry pick” and that a relationship with Europe entailed obligations and not just rights – in other words, the Europeans are rejecting “half membership”. As well, Europe wants Britain to exit as soon as possible, in order to minimize the uncertainty and instability caused by the Brexit vote. French President Hollande went on the attack, saying that London should no longer remain a center for clearing euro trades. This market is worth trillions of euros in currency and derivative deals and such a move would be a severe blow to London’s financial sector. Already, the European Banking Authority has announced it is leaving London and moving to Paris or Frankfurt.  In a strictly legal sense, Britain is still a member of the EU club, but politically, it is out (British EU Commissioner Jonathan Hill resigned after the Brexit vote). The markets are allergic to uncertainty, so Britain’s unclear status within the EU could cause further volatility on the financial markets and boost gold prices.

XAU/USD Fundamentals
Thursday (June 30)

• 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 267K. Actual 268K
• 9:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 50.6. Actual 56.8
• 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 48B. Actual 37B
• 13:30 US FOMC James Bullard Speaks

Upcoming Key Events
Friday (July 1)

• 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 51.3

*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are EDT

XAU/USD for Thursday, June 30, 2016

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XAU/USD – Gold Gains Ground on Dismal Housing Report

Gold prices posted gains on Wednesday, erasing losses observed in Tuesday's session. Gold is trading at a cash price of $ 1,324 per ounce in the North American session. In the liberation front, pending home sales fell 3.7%, much worse than expected. US personal spending recorded a gain of 0.4%, matching the forecast. On Thursday, US releases jobless claims.

Gold has risen again, driven by poor release of pending home sales. The key indicator fell 3.7%, compared with the estimate of -0.9%. It was the biggest drop since December 2014, raising concerns about the strength of the important housing sector. Economic growth this year has slipped compared to 2015, but it was not good news, as the final GDP for the first quarter was revised upwards. The indicator recorded a gain of 1.1%, above the estimate of 1.0%. This reading was stronger than the preliminary reading of 0.8% of GDP. On the consumer front, Consumer Confidence impressed by climbing to 98.0 points, easily beating the forecast of 93.2 points. It is strengthening consumer confidence in the United States? It is not clear, as UoM Consumer Sentiment last week fell to 93.4 points and reached expectations. On Wednesday, US personal spending was lukewarm, gaining 0.4% against 1.0% the previous month.

One of the big winners of the Brexit consultation has been the gold as financial markets fell sharply after the surprising news that Britain had voted to leave the European Union. Gold took advantage of the chaos emerged a remarkable 7.1 percent on Friday. The metal has given some ground this week as market sentiment has improved as the dust begins to settle from the shock of Brexit. Gold has enjoyed a stellar month of June to earn some 8.8% in value and trading comfortably above the level of $ 1,300.

In the aftermath of the Brexit vote continues to reverberate in the UK and Europe, political leaders must now pick up the pieces and deal with the new radical scenario that was unthinkable a few months ago only - that of a European Union without Britain. The historic decision raises many questions and has led to political and economic instability in Europe and the UK, and finished with a staggering $ 3 trillion from global stock markets. The pound has fallen 10 percent since the vote, the Minister of Economy, George Osborne, and Governor of the Bank of England Mark Charney have tried to reassure the markets and the public that the situation is under control, but it is ? The political situation is fluid in Britain, with Prime Minister Cameron resign, the Labour Party in turmoil, and the general elections likely later this year. In the financial sphere, the pound and the markets have taken a beating, and London's position as a global financial center has been shaken. The uncertainty will not disappear in the short term, so traders should be prepared for greater volatility in currency markets and commodities.

The first Cameron, a strong supporter of the EU, British Prime Minister is in the unenviable position of explaining the decision to Brexit European fuming. Cameron arrived in Brussels for an EU summit on Tuesday and the meeting was fraught with tension, dismay and anger. Clearly, the "divorce" century "between Britain and the EU could be spiteful and messy. Cameron has asked for more time to prepare for departure from Britain and wants to renew relations" productive "with Europe. However, European are in no mood for hugs and kisses on both cheeks German Chancellor Merkel said the UK could not "cherry pick" and that a relationship with Europe entails obligations and not only rights -. in other words, Europeans are rejecting "half members." Furthermore, Europe wants Britain to leave as soon as possible in order to minimize uncertainty and instability caused by the vote Brexit. French President Hollande wasted no time in go on the attack, saying that London should no longer remain a center of operations for cleaning euros. this market is worth billions of euros in foreign exchange and derivatives and offers of this measure would be a blow to the financial sector in London . Already, the European Banking Authority has announced that leave London and move to Paris or Frankfurt.

/ USD XAU Basics
On Wednesday (June 29)

8:30 Price Index US PCE Core. 0.2% estimate. Current 0.2%
8:30 Personal Spending United States. 0.4% estimate. Current 0.4%
8:30 Personal Income United States. 0.3% estimate. Current 0.2%
Sales 10:00 United States still homeless. -0.9% Estimate. Real -3.7%
10:30 oil inventories US. -2.3M Estimate. Real -4.1M
16:30 US Bank stress tests
Upcoming key events
Thursday (June 30)

Unemployment Claims 12:30 US. 267K estimate
* Key Announcements are highlighted in bold
* All times are EDT release

XAU / USD for Wednesday, June 29, 2016

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Gold Dips as US GDP, Consumer Confidence Beats Estimate

Gold prices have fallen on Tuesday, following the trend observed in Tuesday's session. Gold is trading at a cash price of $ 1,313.91 per ounce in the North American session. On the front of liberation, USA Final GDP recorded a gain of 1.1%, within expectations. The report Consumer Confidence improved to 98.0 points, well above the estimate.

Gold has become a big winner on Friday Brexit consultation, as financial markets fell sharply after the surprising news that Britain had voted to leave the European Union. Gold took advantage of the chaos emerged a remarkable 7.1 percent on Friday. The metal has given some ground this week as market sentiment has improved as the dust begins to settle from the shock of Brexit. Gold fell on Tuesday, as the US GDP was revised upwards and a key consumer report exceeded expectations. Final GDP for the first quarter recorded a gain of 1.1%, above the estimate of 1.0%. This reading was stronger than the preliminary reading of 0.8% of GDP. Despite the upward revision was good news, the revised GDP report marked the weakest gain in a year. On the consumer front, Consumer Confidence impressed by climbing to 98.0 points, easily beating the forecast of 93.2 points. It is strengthening consumer confidence in the United States? It is not clear, as UoM Consumer Sentiment last week fell to 93.4 points and reached expectations. Consumer confidence is closely linked to consumer spending, and we will take a look at Personal Spending on Wednesday.

In the aftermath of the Brexit vote continues to reverberate in the UK and Europe, political leaders must now pick up the pieces and deal with the new radical scenario that was unthinkable a few months ago only - that of a European Union without Britain. The historic decision raises many questions and has led to political and economic instability in Europe and the UK, and finished with a staggering $ 3 trillion from global stock markets. The pound has fallen 11 percent since the vote, and the Australian dollar took a hit as well, as investors dumped risky assets in favor of safer like gold and the Japanese yen assets. Finance Minister George Osborne and Bank of England Governor Mark Charney have tried to reassure the markets and the public that the situation is under control, but what is? The political situation is fluid, with Prime Minister Cameron resign, the Labour Party in turmoil, and the general elections likely later this year. In the financial sphere, the pound and the markets have taken a beating, and London's position as a global financial center has been shaken. The uncertainty will not disappear in the short term, so traders should be prepared for greater volatility in currency markets.

The British Prime Minister Cameron meets with his EU counterparts in Brussels for a summit of two days, and there are already signs that this divorce between Britain and the EU could be spiteful and messy. Cameron said Monday that his successor would be the one to initiate the exit mechanism, and other British politicians have said that there is no hurry to leave. However, European legislators, furious with the decision, have asked Britain to leave as soon as possible. Britain could have voted "Stop", but it is clear that the time and type of exit plan remain unclear. The future framework of political and economic relations between the UK and the continent will have to be negotiated, and we will see a lot of uncertainty and perhaps fireworks in the coming months.

/ USD XAU Basics
Tuesday (June 28)

8:30 US Final GDP. 1.0% estimate. Real 1.1%
8:30 US Index Final GDP price. 0.6% estimate. Current 0.4%
9:00 S & P / CS Composite-20 HPI. 5.5% estimate. 5.4%
CB Consumer Confidence 10:00. 93.2 estimate. 98.0 reais
Richmond Manufacturing Index 10:00 US. Estimate 2 points. -7 Real points
19:00 US FOMC member Jerome Powell Speaks
* Key Announcements are highlighted in bold
* All times are EDT release

XAU / USD for Tuesday June 28, 2016

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XAU/USD – Gold Climbs as Bank of England Says Rate Cut Coming

Gold has posted gains on Friday, continuing the upward movement that marked the session on Thursday. The metal was trading at $ 1,332 per ounce. In the liberation front, the highlight of today's ISM Manufacturing PMI. It is expected to remain unchanged indicator 51.3 points.

Aftershocks following Brexit continued on Thursday as the Bank of England Mark Carney said a rate cut was imminent. Carney did not mince words in a speech on Thursday, saying that in his opinion "the economic outlook has deteriorated and it is likely that some relaxation of monetary policy is required during the summer." Given the financial turmoil caused by Brexit, markets expected a rate cut in the coming months, but the strong comments Carney market sentiment deteriorated. The pound reacted negatively, as the GBP / USD fell 120 points. As expected, the pound loss after Carney's comments have been earning gold, as lower interest rates make gold more attractive. Gold has risen 1.2% since Wednesday. The metal has been one of the big winners of the Brexit consultation, and enjoyed a spectacular rise in June of 8.6 percent. With the uncertainty in commodity markets and ongoing currency, the gold rally could continue until next week.

With financial markets focused on the impressive vote Brexit understandably, the Federal Reserve and future currency movements have passed into the background. That could change next week as Fed Chairman Janet Yellen will deliver a speech in Philadelphia. You will need to provide some clue about a movement of rates? Yellen and her colleagues have sounded cautious about the US economy, and unless we see employment figures and stronger inflation in the second half of 2016, the Fed may remain on the sidelines until 2017. Gone are the heady days last December, when the Fed raised rates and hinted that there was more to come in 2016, maybe even four increases. In a nutshell? Traders should not expect an increase of imminent rate to boost the US dollar; rather, the direction of the currency will be largely dependent data - the Fed is unlikely to budge unless we see employment figures and significantly improved inflation.

It has been exactly one week since the historic referendum that saw the British electorate vote to leave the EU after 40 years. Brexit The vote to leave the EU has caused profound instability in Europe and the UK and finish with a staggering $ 3 trillion from global stock markets. As the dust has begun to settle, however, financial markets have stabilized. The pound plummeted to 11 percent in the aftermath of the vote, but has stabilized in recent days. However, political leaders from both sides of the Canal will have to pick up the pieces and deal with the new radical scenario that was unthinkable only a few months ago - that of a European Union without the United Kingdom. British politics have tried to calm public opinion and the markets, but sharp fall in the pound on Thursday stressed that the situation is anything but normal. the political image of the country is fluid, as the Conservatives are choosing a new leader, the Working Group is in crisis and elections can not be far behind. In the financial sphere, the pound and the markets have taken a beating and London's position as a global financial center has been shaken. The uncertainty will not disappear in the short term, so that operators can expect more volatility in the currency markets.

The British Prime Minister Cameron was in the unenviable position of fuming meeting with European leaders at the EU summit this week. Cameron asked for time to prepare for departure from Britain and wants to renew the "productive" relations with Europe. However, Europeans are in no mood for hugs and kisses on both cheeks, and the "divorce" century "between Britain and the EU could be spiteful and messy. German Chancellor Merkel said that the UK does not could "cherry pick" and that a relationship with Europe entails obligations and not only rights -. in other words, Europeans are rejecting "half members" Europe also wants Britain to leave as soon as possible, with in order to minimize uncertainty and instability caused by the vote Brexit. French President Hollande wasted no time going on the attack, saying that London should no longer remain a center of operations for cleaning euros. This market it is worth billion in foreign exchange and derivatives and offers of this measure would be a blow to the financial sector in London. Now, the European Banking Authority has announced that leave London and move to Paris or Frankfurt. In a strictly legal sense, Britain remains a member of the EU club, but politically, is persona non grata (British EU Commissioner Jonathan Hill resigned shortly after the Brexit vote). Markets are allergic to uncertainty, so it is not clear the state of Britain in the EU could boost gold prices.

/ USD XAU Basics
Friday (July 1)

9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. 51.4 estimate
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI. 51.3 estimate
10:00 spending on US construction. Estimate 0.6%
10:00 ISM manufacturing prices. 63.9 estimate
All day - US vehicle sales in total. estimated 17.3 million
* Key Announcements are highlighted in bold
* All times are EDT release

XAU / USD for Friday July 1, 2016

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